India’s Two-Front Challenge

India’s Two-Front Challenge – : China’s premeditated aggression and intrusions on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh, is a manifestation of its geopolitical intent to constrain, intimidate and dominate India.  China has employed force levels unmatched since 1962 against India, which it regards as a future strategic rival. 

  • The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) transgressions in Ladakh has also brought about greater physical proximity between and increased prospects of strategic and operational collusion between the militaries of China and Pakistan.
  • “Such developments should leave no doubt in the minds of Indian strategic planners and defence policymakers that India faces a two-front challenge. 

China- Pakistan:

  • Till recently, any mention of a two-front war evoked two contrasting opinions. India’s military was firmly of the view that a collusive China-Pakistan military threat was a real possibility, and we must develop capabilities to counter this challenge.
  • China has always looked at Pakistan as a counter to India’s influence in South Asia.
  • China, through its chequebook diplomacy, wants to exercise this hegemony over the South-Asian neighbours. In this pursuit, China would want to drain India’s economic resources on the border confrontation.
  • Thus, a two-front war scenario can be a strategy by China to undermine India’s role in its neighbourhood.
  • Military cooperation is growing, with China accounting for 73% of the total arms imports of Pakistan between 2015-2019.

India & Issues Related to Two-front War Scenario:

  • The political class in general and the mainstay of the country’s strategic community felt that a two-front threat was being over-hyped by the military to press for additional resources and funds. 
  • They argued that historically, China has never intervened militarily in any India-Pakistan conflict and that the economic, diplomatic, and political ties between India and China rule out any armed conflict between the two countries.
  • As a result, Indian strategic thinking was overwhelmingly focused on Pakistan and the security considerations emanating from there.

India’s Two Front Challenge – Way Forward:

  • In the Indian military’s thinking, while China was the more powerful — and therefore strategic — foe, the chance of a conventional conflict breaking out was low.
  • The reverse was true of Pakistan, with a greater likelihood of conflict along the western border possibly triggered by a major terror attack emanating from Pakistan.
  • The Chinese intrusions in Ladakh in May this year, the violence that resulted from clashes between the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army, and the deadlock in negotiations have now made the Chinese military threat more apparent and real. 
  • The direct result of this, then, is the arrival of a worrisome two-front situation for New Delhi.
  • Even if the current India-China crisis on the border is resolved peacefully, China’s military challenge will occupy greater attention of Indian military planners in the months and years to come.